Oliver Gill

Note for pokertips.org forum readers - i’m just hosting this here temporarily for someone to read, i’m aware you all know what expected value is.

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Expected Value is a term used to describe a player’s expected return on a wager in a pot. Players should attempt to make plays with a positive expected value (+EV) and avoid situations with a negative expected value (-EV) for the player.

For Example

All players have 5,000 chips with blinds at 250/500.

Action is folded to Player A on the small blind. Player A raises all-in.

Player B is on the big blind. It is 4,750 chips to call to win a 10,000 chip pot, meaning that Player B needs to have 47.5% equity against Player A’s likely shoving range in order to yield a positive expected value by calling. This is calculated by dividing the amount needed to call into the total pot size.

Player B estimates that Player A is moving all-in with a range of 66-AA, AT-AK, KQ.

Player B has Qs Qc.

If Player A has a pocket pair, there are six situations where he will be an 80% favourite, one unlikely situation where they have the same hand (which is so unlikely it barely figures into calculations since Player B has two of the queens) and two situations where he will be a 20% underdog. He can estimate his equity here by multiplying 80% (his approximate percentage to win when he is ahead) by 6 (the number of times he is ahead on average when Player A has a pocket pair) and 20% (his approximate percentage to win when he is behind) by 2 (the number of times he is behind on average when Player A has a pocket pair) and adding the two numbers together to get 520, then dividing by the number of hands (eight hands) to get an average of 65% equity when Player A has a pocket pair.

If Player A doesn’t have a pocket pair, there is one situation where Player B is flipping (against AK) and four situations where Player B is a 70% favourite. Using the same formula, Player A multiplies 50% by 1 and 70% by 4, adds them together to get 330 and then divides by 5 to get 66% equity when Player A does not have a pocket pair.

Because there are more combinations of non-paired hands than paired hands, even though there are more hands in the pocket pair part of Player A’s range, Player B estimates that Player A will have a pocket pair roughly half the time and high cards the other half of the time. Combining his estimates so far, Player B averages out his equity when Player A does and does not have a pocket pair to estimate that he has 65.5% equity against Player A’s shoving range.

Because Player B’s estimated equity of 65.5% is greater than the required 47.5% to make the call, calling here is a play with a positive expected value because he has significantly more than 47.5% equity against Player A’s range. In fact, if the raise was not all-in, Player B has so much more equity with his hand than Player A does that he could even reraise. However, if Player B had a hand like 6c 5c, his equity would be far lower than 47.5% so calling would have a negative expected value in this instance.

Of course, these calculations are not precise, but using this method it becomes easy for players who are capable of estimating their opponents ranges to determine whether calling is likely to yield a positive expected value in the long run in situations where your opponent has bet or raised with no further action pending and you are considering a call.

If there is further action pending on the hand, additional calculations must be factored in, including implied odds and reverse implied odds before a player can calculate whether calling, raising or folding is the correct course of action. For further details, see implied odds.

Week five begins with my housemate Michael leaving to see if things work out with the girl he met in Vegas. People find love in strange places, so who knows

Unfortunately, this leaves me without a laptop at home so with my internet access restricted to net kiosk terminals at the Flamingo, my blog has been without an update for some time.

Over the past week, I played in three major tournaments; in the first, a $550 VDS event, I chip up to 3x the starting stack before running three of a kind into a full house to go broke with ~20% of the field left.

In the second, another $550 VDS event, I 4bet shove with AK over a 3bettor’s JJ in the early mid-stages, get called, lose the flip for a 2x average stack to head to the rail.

The 1k Caesars Megastack Main Event is more interesting; we start 1000bb deep, I chip up from 50k to 60k quite easily before bluffing off 30k in a sick spot where I felt villain would fold top pair in a spot where my range is 80% nuts 20% air (I had air, obviously), unfortunately my read of villain is off and he makes the call with A5 for top pair no kicker on the river in a monster pot, knocking me down to 30k.

I find my way back to 120k without a major showdown by steamrolling the table as the blinds go up because everyone at my table seems to be weak-tight. During the last level of Day 1, I get moved to a more aggressive table and with about 20 minutes of play left, I have a brain implosion and elect to 4bet all in with 77 for about 45bb when I get 3bet by a laggy guy who has been playing like a maniac; unfortunately he wakes up with QQ and snaps me off to send me to the rail.

Other highlights this week include watching UFC 100 at a bar; we arrive just in time to watch Brock Lesnar beat the hell out of Frank Mir in a completely one sided bout. The UFC diehards hate it and the bar erupts in boos. I love it. That’ll teach the UFC fanboys to knock ‘fake wrestlers’. Frank Mir, you just got knocked the fuck out. Fun times.

A few days later, a friend I met named Joe decides that he wants to put a team of myself, James (a friend from Melbourne) and Adam (a random online player I became friends with in Vegas) into the $1680 WSOP Dream Team Poker event at the Rio.

Unfortunately, James and Adam both get coolered early in AK vs JJ and AK vs AA spots to bust and i’m left flying the flag alone with no chance of recovering any share of the team portion of the prize pool.

I eliminate one of the ‘Maven VT’ guys (their whole operation is ridiculous) to chip up early when my QQ flops a set against KK during the first level super deep (about 5% of the stacks went in pre) and he check-raises all in on the turn giving me a free doubleup. He gives me a speech about how bad I play. The Maven likes to teach his players to trap themselves, apparently.

I hover around the 2-3x starting stack mark for a while, encountering neverwinpoker.com’s Bryan Micon to my left at one stage and 2007 WSOP Main Event Winner Jerry Yang on my table at another stage. I actually bust Jerry Yang when my KK holds against his 75s all in preflop, although to be fair he did have under 1bb. Regardless, the structure eventually degenerates into a crapshoot and the average stack is about 12bb as we approach the bubble.

I get moved from the button to the BB three times in about 10 hands as my table breaks three times in under five minutes. This completely cripples my stack since I can’t find hands to defend my blinds or spots to steal and i’m left open shoving my way back from 7bb to 10bb before I jam 75o into AQo and fail to get there against a trash talking European guy. This leaves me with 1bb, I double up in the big blind but then bust a couple of hands later when I get all in for about 3bb in a five way pot with some random suited connector and fail to get there. I end up finishing about 60th, lol donkaments etc.

I spent my first night at Caesars Palace since the guys all have rooms there and i’m too lazy to walk home after a session one night; Caesars is definitely a world class property. I lose my shirt in the pool area somehow, along with the hat I got Micon to sign for a friend back home and my Team Obnoxious Jerks jersey from Dream Team Poker. When I told Micon during the Teams Event that I promised to bring ‘Hed1′ back some signed NWP gear and Hed1 responded with ‘don’t be a homo’, Micon insists on giving me a signed hat and shirt to give to him ‘with love’.

I spent the rest of the week playing cash (and actually winning a few buyins) and hanging out with friends from Crown including James, Brendan and Chris and some other guys I met on the trip, Joe, Seth and Adam. We have a lot of fun and decide that a few of us might meet up in Macau for the AAPT event next month.

My last night in Vegas is where the trip finally gets a little more interesting. I start out losing a buy-in playing cash while we wait for James to wake up (it’s about 9pm at this stage) at Imperial Palace. He finally arrives and James, Brendan, Chris and I head out to ‘Moon’, a club at Palms.

Moon is awesome with good music, only slightly overpriced drinks, plenty of drunk hotties (and some not-so-hotties including one girl who walked up to me at the bar, grabbed my ass and tried to pick me up using ‘oops, I didn’t mean to grab your ass, i’m so sorry, let me make it up to you, blah blah blah’.

Unfortunately, she’s not my type. James has a little bit of luck with a slim brunette from Melbourne (a solid whose name escapes me but her blonde friend cockblocks him and the half-hearted attempts to wing by Chris, Brendan and I fail miserably as the blonde chick ruins his chances by dragging her friend out of the club.

The view from the top of Palms is pretty awesome (see pics in my thread at the forums), we stand around drinking for a while with an awesome view of the strip on the balcony at the club and discussing life, the universe and everything.

After a couple hours, James and I decide that we’re going to the Spearmint Rhino as neither of us have been to a strip club in Vegas and it’s my last night in town and James is also leaving in a few days.

It’s now about 3:30am and the night is just beginning. Chris has met a new friend, a young African American guy who tells me his name is ‘Gizmo’. He offers to give us a lift to the strip club and the four of us accept. On the way, he says if we want value for money from strippers he has a friend who works as a stripper and we should go around to her place and ‘follow his lead’. Intrigued, we accept this offer and purchase a carton of Coronas at a service station before heading off for what is sure to be an adventure. Let it ride.

A few minutes later, we find ourselves entering a condo in a gated community south of Mandalay Bay. The five of us walk in to the condo (it’s about 4:30am) and find a fairly attractive blonde woman sitting topless on the couch. Wait, what?

She introduces herself as ‘Isabelle’ and confims that she is indeed a stripper ‘who also does sex shows’. Okay then. She seems to be friendly with Gizmo but the nature of their relationship remains a mystery for now.

Isabelle asks what we’re here for and Gizmo tells her that we should all have a gang bang. She seems to be pleased with this idea, but Chris and Brendan both seem very much not fine with this idea. While drunk, James and I haven’t reached that stage of intoxication yet. I mention to her that James and I have both never had a lap dance (true in both cases) and I offer to buy James a lap dance.

She waves away the money, grabs a blanket from another room and sets it down on the floor, instructing James to lie down. Isabelle strips down to a G-string and grinds away on him then takes his shirt off and starts taking off his pants. James finds this a little bit awkward with the rest of us sitting there in a random stripper’s living room instead of the VIP area where this kind of debauchery is supposed to be taking place.

Suddenly, she stops and says it’s my turn. She comes over to me and does goes through the same routine on the couch, then out of nowhere pulls my *ahem* equipment out and asks if I mind. I laugh it off and tell her i’d rather not go any further with my friends in the room here.

Gizmo offers everyone some… let’s call it white powder to ‘loosen us up’. We elect not to partake since illicit substances are not our scene. Isabelle goes back to randomly giving lap dances to all four of us for whatever reason and when it’s my turn, she grabs me and pulls me into the bedroom, much to the amusement of James, Brendan and Chris.

Okay, i’m not complaining. This is where the TMI principle kicks in (too much information, as if he hadn’t crossed that threshold already) so we’ll skip ahead a few minutes.

Let’s just say this is quickly becoming my most enjoyable night in Vegas to date. We do our thing for maybe 15-20 mins and as we’re finishing up, Gizmo knocks on the door and asks if I would like to ‘do some DP with her since the others don’t seem to be up for a gang bang’. Wait, what?

If you don’t know what DP is, consult urbandictionary.com but you’re probably better off not knowing. She encourages me to but I politely decline and we head back out into the lounge to drink more beer. Isabelle invites James into the other room but he declines. Chris and James still want to get to a strip club and I have a couple hundred American dollars left in my wallet to burn before my flight.

Gizmo heads into the bedroom to do whatever with Isabelle. After a few more minutes (it’s now about 5:30am) we tell Gizmo through the door that we’re going to get a taxi and head to a strip club and thanks for an interesting night but we’re heading off.

We go to leave but as we’re walking out to get a taxi, Gizmo races to the door and tells us he’s happy to drop us off at a club. Isabelle the stripper decides to stay behind.

Around 6am, we walk into the Penthouse Crazy Horse III club (it’s called something like that, I was fairly drunk). We realise that this isn’t the Rhino, but Gizmo tells us the Rhino is overrated, so whatever.

I tell everyone it’s my round (it is) and instead of ordering drinks, I tell everyone to choose a girl since i’m buying a round of lap dances. There are only four girls in the club and one customer at the bar, a few security/bar guys and, well, us.

The strippers quickly flock over to the drunk 20-something cashed up poker players like bees to honey. Poker players are the fish at strip clubs. James takes a liking to his girl so I buy him a dance and tell her to take good care of him since it’s the first time he’s had a lap dance in a strip club (technically still true since our ‘Isabelle’ experiences did not occur in a strip club).

James’ girl is about 5′8 with a perfect body and light brown hair. She’s a solid 9 in the club, although who knows since strip clubs do provide an environment in which gentleman can… overlook flaws. Not to mention the many Coronas I have consumed.

I find girls for Brendan and Chris then figure that since it’s a round i’ll get one for myself as well. I decide on a girl named ‘Isis’ (lol, stripper names) who tells me she is from the Phillippines. At this point, I am convinced that she is as close to a 10 as i’m going to find, not just at the strip club but possibly ever.

After our dances, we find that James has disappeared into the ‘VIP Area’, no doubt to have his wallet emptied, among other things. An hour passes and still no sign of James. I purchase an $8 bottle of water which I figure is a fair price for 300mL. It isn’t even Fiji Water. Eventually, Brendan and I send Chris in to the VIP Room to find James. Chris returns a few minutes later and says that James’s response when he entered his VIP Room was ‘fuck off’.

A blonde stripper who seems to have noticed that i’m the only person spending money in the club and therefore an easy mark asks me if I think her boobs are real or fake. I tell her it’s hard to tell with her shirt on but if I have to guess i’ll go with real. She strips down to her bra and asks me whather I can tell yet. It’s a legitimately tough call and I stick with my original answer. She then gets topless and asks me if i’d like to feel them to help me make my mind up. She isn’t quite as hot as the other strippers but she does seem to have perfect breasts. I oblige and eventually tell her I think they’re either real or the best fakes i’ve ever seen (this is an honest answer). She hugs me, tells me she loves me and then wanders away when she realises i’m not spending any money. My heart breaks, although not that much, since Isis is sitting on my lap again trying to convince me to go to the VIP area. I never find out whether they’re real or fake. Maybe Brendan did, since he got a lap dance from her.

Eventually, James and his girl emerge and I dare to ask how much he spent; he says it was $100 and the best $100 he has ever spent. I can’t really argue since they’ve been gone for close to an hour and a half and from what I understand, that’s not a bad rate for a Vegas strip club.

After eventually separating James and his stripper, she says she would like to thank me for introducing her to James with a free dance. Strip clubs are awesome at 6am when the girls are bored and we’re the only guys in the club. I get a free dance but tip her the $20 anyway. Clearly this was her plan. I’m such a strip club fish.

I check my wallet and find that somehow i’ve only spent about $180 tonight and that includes five lap dances, only two of which were for me. I can spare the buyin at 200NL for a night like this. Gizmo pulls me aside and asks me again whether I want to ‘go back to Isabelle’s place and double team her’. Instead, we elect to ask Gizmo to drop us off at Caesars Palace. He drives off, never to be heard from again. I still don’t know whether Gizmo was his real name.

I’m quite exhausted and i’m flying out in under 10 hours, James hasn’t slept in 48 hours, Chris is still freaked out by Isabelle wanting a gang bang and Brendan says we should have gone out to Palms earlier so he could have picked up. We laugh at him.

James heads back to Imperial Palace to sleep, Brendan heads to his room at Caesars, Chris wanders off to play some cash or something and I wander over to the Flamingo and ask the nearest blackjack dealer where I can get food at ‘whatever hour it is now’ since I seem to have lost my phone. She informs me that it’s 10am and points me towards a cafe where I order some delicious waffles with maple syrup.

I walk home to the Meredian for the last time, leaving the bright lights of the strip behind me. I sleep for an hour, quickly clean the apartment, give the keys to the landlord and grab my bags. Goodbye, Vegas, I think we’ll be seeing each other again.

I walk over to Tuscany (which is across the road from my condo) and ask for a taxi; a limo driver there offers to take me to the airport for a comparable price ($20) and I figure why not. Somehow, i’ve never been in a limo before and i’m leaving Las Vegas in one piece, so a celebration can’t hurt. The limo is stocked with champagne glasses and if there was anyone left with me, i’d consider a toast. There is no one else left though and i’m still quite drunk, so I stretch out in the limo and watch the giant medieval castles and pyramids of the Strip fade into the distance.

We arrive at McCarran International Airport; I board my flight to LAX and after a short delay, my V Australia flight departs for Brisbane. I even manage to get about six hours of sleep on the flight.

Thirteen hours later, I step out out of the terminal and into the refreshingly cool Brisbane sun. It’s not Las Vegas but Bris Vegas is close enough and I can go outside without sweating again. I’m home.

I didn’t get my one time this trip but my bankroll is still in good shape and I had one hell of a time and some… interesting… memories. Maybe next year.

The Final Count

Cash Games: Approx +$300

Tournaments: Approx -$6500-7000; +$10000 in unused Main Event Seat

Expenses: Approx -$2000

Casinos Visited: Caesars Palace, Venetian, Palazzo, Wynn, Excalibur, MGM Grand, Luxor, Mandalay Bay, Rio, Palms, Paris, Bellagio, Gold Coast, O’Shea’s, Bill’s, Imperial Palace, Casino Royale… probably some others that I forgot

Best Movie I saw during the trip: The Hangover

Best Club: Moon at Palms (although I didn’t visit many)

Hottest Stripper: ‘Isis’ from Crazy Horse III

Hottest Cocktail Waitresses: Surprisingly… the Rio

Number of random hookups: More than Brendan, less than Chris and James. We’ll call it a tie. More than zero and less than five.

Number of hookers I was propositioned by: 2

Number of tournaments I played: 20-something

Number of tournament cashes: 1 (miserable failure accurately describes it)

Best dealers: Caesars Palace

Best floorstaff: Wynn

Best atmosphere: Caesars Palace

Best hotel: Mandalay Bay or Wynn, it’s close

Biggest disappointment: The Venetian; it’s overrated, smoky and the food is awful

Best value hotel: Imperial Palace: despite what they say; it’s acceptable enough and location IS everything

Biggest dump of a hotel on the strip: Luxor

Biggest dump of a casino on the strip: Casino Royale

My next trip will either be The Victorian Poker Championships or APPT Macau in August. It’s been fun but that’s all for now folks.

It’s Main Event time and I arrive for Day 1a to find Aussie pro Julius Coleman to my right, six satellite fish and one empty chair for what most be one of the softest tables in the field. The satellite fish all start off by limpcalling everything or opening to 11x and other retarded spewy play during the first level and I chip up to 28k without finding hands or confrontation with the only major hand occurring when I snap off a retard’s bluff with ace high on a two pair board for about 1k.

By 50/100, i’m sitting on close to 28,000 and it looks like it’s going to be a beautiful day. True to their usual form, PokerNews manages to get about half of the information wrong on this hand so instead of copying their link; this is how it actually went down.

Spewy/bad player who only seems to open limp or raise to 10x or more decides to limp UTG, tilty LAG-fish who has already thrown away 3/4 of his 500bb starting stack putting way too many chips into several different pots with one pair type hands elects to raise to 300. I find 2c 2s on the button and call, UTG calls and we take a three way flop.

Flop: Td 7s 2d

UTG checks, MP bets 500, he’s tilty, shortstacked and has been very aggressive so I elect to call (I normally raise here but villain is likely to have complete air) and UTG minraises to 1000. What? MP calls. Well, one of them probably has some sort of a draw and I can’t let them get there for free. I hate raising here because it looks so much like a set but I kinda have to and they’re both really bad. I make it 3500, UTG quickly calls and MP elects to jam for about 6,900. I ask whether the action is open for UTG and I to raise if we want, the dealer calls the floor and the floor confirms the action is open. I tank for a while, not remotely worried about MP (his range is basically top pair, overpairs and flush draws) but worried about the donktastic UTG player. I figure TT is unlikely since he would have probably raised since he’s made it 10x+ several times already so that leaves his range at something like 77, AT, T7, 8d9d, Adxd with maybe some spazzy random hands in there for good measure like a very badly played aces. I decide to go with the hand and reraise to 18,500 (enough to commit the stacks if UTG has a flush draw) and UTG thinks for a moment and elects to call. I’m a bit worried, but he’s pretty awful and he didn’t jam, so I think i’m good. UTG started the hand with ~27k and we’ve both already put 19k into the pot with about 21k in the Main Pot and 24k in the sidepot, so we’re committed.

Turn: 9d

Oh dear god that is an awful card.

UTG checks. Odd. I move my last 10k in and UTG calls and tables Ts Th (77 wouldn’t surprise me but I didn’t even have TT in his range after his preflop and flop play).

MP tables Ad Qd for the nut flush (which is coincidentally the top of his range too) and I have one out.

River: Qh

I’m crippled to 1400 chips.

I lose my BB, the blinds go up to 100/200 and I lose my SB as well. On the button I find 55 but UTG raises so I elect to fold since i’m massively crushed by his range. On the cutoff, I find A3 and with the BB away from the table, Julius Coleman opens the Hijack to 525. I tell him i’m far enough ahead of his range and jam, it folds back around Julius who calls and tables 9c6c. The board bricks out for both of us and I double to about 3,000.

I find QJ on hijack and minraise the next hand; BTN calls, SB (who has returned to the table) 3bets to 1200. It’s his first 3bet of the tournament. I fold. The hand goes to showdown and SB tables AA (which loses to BTN’s QsTs). Why am I raise/folding a 15bb stack? Sigh. I fold a bit, open shove 2c2s from MP then an orbit later, I find myself involved again with Qs Tc on the BB. Two players limp and I check my option (i’d move in here if there were antes but i’ve moved in a lot and I don’t think I have much fold equity). Flop KQ6 rainbow. With 700 in the pot, the first limper leads 600, the second limper folds. The first limper has only limped with low pocket pairs so far so I decide that with 1300 in the pot and a likely five outs if he wakes up with a hand, there’s not much else I can do with my ~2.5k stack so I move in all but one 25 chip and villain instantly announces call and tables 66. Sigh. The turn is a 7 and i’m drawing dead so I muck for the last 25 (pokernews/pokernetwork has a photo of me with my last 25 chip). So, I now have 1/1000th of a starting stack and 1/8th of 1bb. My K7 triples me up next hand when I bink a king on the river then three players limp a few hands later, I put my last 75 in with A9 and brick out against the limper’s K3 which makes a full house (which he checks twice for some reason before minbetting the river.

Busto~!!!

Well, that sucked. So much for flop set stack donkey. More like flop set against donkey, get set over setted for ~60k (which would have made me chipleader) and go home early.

I’ve now officially dropped half of my bankroll playing live over the past two months. I’m done with live poker for a while and i’m done with playing professionally. My roll is still very grindable for the stakes I play so it’s time to get a full time job and/or go back to uni, drop down in stakes slightly, fire up my computer and go back to what i’m good at; crushing donkeys in 5/10/20 rebuys and 26/55 freezeouts.

GG everyone. Maybe next time.

I wake up and after a quick shower, I put on my new jacket (which is the only warm thing I own) and walk over to Crown. It’s cold and rainy but i’m feeling good.

We start the $1100 6max tournament with 10,000 chips and 40 minute levels. I have solid Crown regular Leo Boxell to my left and four unknowns at the table. Unfortunately, only the guy to my right seems to be awful and he’s running quite card hot. I start off splashing around in small pots, climb to 11k and then drop to 8k without playing a notable hand. I get two streets from a set but put a lot of chips in and miss with a nut flush draw and two overs and then again with an open ended straight flush draw. Missing 15+ outs in back to back pots is not helpful. I flop middle set with JJ at 50/100 and get two streets of value postflop; firing pot sized bets on the flop and the turn. Villain folds his top pair to my pot sized bet on the river. I flop top pair and get run down when villain turns two pair to concede two streets of value back to a different opponent.

I eventually find myself involved in a fairly large pot with Kh Qh at the 50/100 level. I have a very loose-aggressive image and i’ve lost most of the pots i’ve been involved in as my opponents have been hitting flops hard.

CO (bad spewy fish) limps for 100, I raise to 375 on the BTN, SB folds, BB calls, CO calls. BB is a station who plays too many hands.

Flop: Kd 9d 3h

BB checks, CO checks, I bet 600, BB calls, CO folds

Turn: 6s

BB checks, I bet 1200, BB raises to 3400. What? This smells like a flush draw but villain is in his late 40s/early 50s so it could be a set. Would he really check a set twice? I’ve only 2barreled once out of about five hands so far and it was with a weak hand and that hand went to showdown so I think villain thinks i’m light. Old guys don’t checkraise draws on the turn though do they? It’s an $1100 6max event though and villain is relatively unknown… i’m almost certain AK isn’t in his range… could he be raising a weaker king for value and/or ‘information’? I’m not beating much but I can’t see any hand that villain could have which beats me other than a set, so after about a minute and a half I elect to call, leaving us with close to a pot sized bet behind.

River: 5d

All of the draws just got there and now I don’t beat anything anymore. Villain insta-shoves and I fold and curse myself for not checking behind on the turn against an old guy. I’m pretty sure I was going to go with the hand on the river if a diamond didn’t hit. Why am I trying to get three streets of value here? Sigh. So bad. I’m left with only about 4.5k after the hand and at 75/150 I find a few spots to raise AQ and 99 (at 30bb i’m still too deep to open shove) and each time I miss the board and am forced to checkfold or I miss the board, fire a cbet and my cbet is raised.

I’m down to about 2500 when I find Jh Jd and UTG makes it 450. I shove on the button and UTG looks sick. As he’s tanking, I decide I have him crushed enough that I want a call so I do my best to make it look like i’m on tilt and throw out some reverse tells. Villain eventually calls and tables JTo. He’s completely crushed and he misses the flop and is drawing dead by the turn. I’m back to 5k. I find AQ again, raise, get two callers and the flop is K98 with two spades. I don’t have any spades. I sigh and checkfold as the villains get it in with a set against a nut flush draw. Leo Boxell has the nut flush draw and is busted by the spewy fish to my right. At 100/200, I shove 99 over a raise and a call and get two folds then shove AQ over a raiser and get another fold. My stack is back to about 7,000 now and the antes kick in next level. I’ve also shoved preflop on 4 of the past 20 hands so my image has loosened back up after showing down the pocket jacks earlier. I find Ac Kc on the button and a young Asian guy with about 13k raises to 600. I insta-shove all of my chips except for a lone 25 chip as i’ve done this every shove since the start and I feel like he’s going to call me very light (as in AT+ KQ 88+ light)

He starts tanking so I do my best to look weak since i’m pretty sure he has AQ after thinking about it for so long. He asks me some questions, I do a Phil Laak impersonation and hide under my hoodie and eventually he announces all in. I call off my last 25 chips and villain tables… what looks like a queen. Ship it! Oh wait, that’s two queens. What the fuck? Epic slowroll. Fortunately, we’re flipping and i’m feeling like i’m pretty due to bink one of these AK vs QQ flips since this is my third in two days and i’m 0/2 so far. I stand up and point at the table and tell everyone that i’m going to bink an ace on the flop.

Flop: 4s 4c 2d

Turn: 6c

Well hello there Mr. Flush Draw…

River: 9s

Sigh. I suck at flips. I wish everyone luck and head to the rail. Jonathan ‘xMonsterxDongX’ Karamaklis is moved into my seat and I pity the poor souls at my former table that are about to get crushed.

I find that i’ve lost my bank card and rush to the bank, arriving about 5 minutes before the branch closes to cancel my credit card and withdraw money for the HA rebuys event coming up.

The $240 HA event with $100 rebuys starts shortly after and i’m seated at a table with 2009 Aussie Millions Main Event winner Stewart Scott and the most aggressive woman in poker, Miss Lisa Walsh (from my ANZPT Sydney table if you read the TR)

Stewart and I rebuy and everyone else decides to be a nitdonk instead and play a single stack.

Lisa starts off by open shoving or calling shoves on seven of the first ten hands and doubling up three times, twice through Stewart, despite being crushed twice. I find AK and open shove, Lisa calls with A2 and binks a deuce on the river to stack me. Some people are just blessed, she’s on the most massive life heater of all time (she tells me she’s up 50k in 5 days at 5/T/20 Straddle live and that’s on the back of finishing 2nd in ANZPT Sydney)

I double rebuy and Stewart raises to 150; he’s been gambling a lot too so I shove my 2k with AJ and he calls with QJ and I hold to move to 4k. During PLO, I flop top set and get it in against Lisa who has a 3 card wrap for 9 outs; I turn quads and she rivers one of her outs, but fortunately my quads manages to hold for a change. I pick up another nice pot with a second nut flush against Lisa and finish the rebuy period with 10.5k; I take a single add on (you can take up to three) and take 11.5k to the end of the rebuy period.

I chip up during PLO with either the nuts on the river or without showdowns nicely and nothing interesting happens at all until there are two tables left. This is about five hours of me not playing a single noteworthy hand or being all in at any stage in either game; I 3bet once in hold’em and win the unwanted pots in PLO and/or fire pot bets until the villains all fold when I hit flops and I have about 22k at 600/1200 which is slightly below the average with 18 left out of the field of 81. Top nine are getting paid. During PLO, I pot with Ah Jc 9h 6c and get repotted by a short stack; I call off and i’m up against Kd Kc 3d 5s; fortunately the flop is three hearts and I chip up to about 28k.

After that I raise pot over multiple limpers with QJTTds and AQJTds and get one caller each time; the flops are 632 with two of a diff suit and 543 with three of a diff suit and both times my seperate opponents lead pot into me and i’m forced to fold since I have absolute air. I’m down to about 20k when the game changes back to Hold’em with 15 left and the average stack is ~33k. Two players are away at my table so we’re 5 handed; I open shove BvB then raise to 3500 with 9d 8d on a nitty guy’s BB with SB away from the table (I can do this since BB is only shoving like AQ+ TT+ and i’m deep enough to raisefold live here) when i’m on the cutoff; sadly BTN elects to shove (he’s also tight but less so) and he only has about 10k so I have to call; he turns over 9s 9c and i’m pretty screwed; I brick out to drop to about 14k. I find Qs Ts UTG and shove since we’re still 5 handed and BB is away and two of the other guys are super nitty; one of the non-nitty guys calls with Kc Jh and we’re off to the races.

Flop: 667
Turn: 8
River: 7

I die a little bit inside since it’s the first time i’ve been all in called and covered since the end of the rebuy period and it’s my second deep run with essentially no showdowns only to finish just outside of the money; I wish Stewart luck (he’s awesome and we’ve been drinkin together) and head to the rail. I later find out Stewart went on to win the tournament. Good for him. Speaking of life heaters though… he was all in called and covered at LEAST eight times since I was at the table with him from beginning to end. Some people are blessed.

Day 8: I take a trip to Carlton for the first time to get dinner with James, Tim, Chris adn Michelle; we eat delicious Italian food, I have gnocchi with chicken and avocado and we get gelati for dessert; Chris decides to put in a session at Crown afterwards and the rest of us all head home. I’m taking Days 8 & 9 off poker so that i’m well rested for the Main Event. I’m playing really well this trip (with the exception of that one hand where I tried to bluff Sam Youssef) but my bankroll is taking a lot of punishment and if I don’t cash in the Main, i’m done with live poker for quite a long time and i’m also going to be done with playing professionally as soon as I can find a job I like. This is the final showdown, people.

I get dinner with James, Michelle and Tim at one of the restaurants at Crown; the pizza is average but pots of beer are $2 so good times are had by all. Tim and Michelle opt out of credit card roulette and James and I decide to flip for the remaning $25 or so. I lose my first credit card roulette ever (1 for 3 now) but fortunately it’s for what must be the smallest credit card roulette bill in history.

We head down to the poker room, James puts on his PokerNews shirt and takes over reporting duties for the ‘State of Origin’ Feature Event while I head to the cash tables for some 2/3. I draw a ridiculously bad/loose table and buy in for $200. On the first hand, I look down a 9h 9d in MP. UTG limps, I check my option after having posted, two more players call and the button raises to $22. Button is a loose/bad cash player and i’m way ahead of his button isolation range but being OOP sucks. SB calls, BB calls then UTG calls as well. Okay, well the UTG limper is unlikely to be trapping since he sucks at poker, none of these players are flatting TT+ in the SB or BB so the only player I have to worry about is BTN. With close to $100 in the pot and a good chance that I have the best hand plus fold equity and somewhat decent equity against BTN’s calling range (which I assume is JJ+, AK, AQ) I elect to move all in. The player who limped behind me tanks… then overcalls? What the fuck? Button thinks for a moment then elects to call and when it folds around to UTG, he says ‘now I have value’ and calls too, leaving $16 behind. BTN is all in for about $150, i’m all in for $200, UTG has $16 behind and MP2 covers. I know I have a better hand than UTG and MP2, with no idea what button has but a suspicion that he’s at the weaker end of his range so probably AQ or JJ tops. Everyone keeps their cards down and I find myself in an $800 pot on the first hand.

Flop: 6h 2h 2d

Both players check. Cool, so neither of them has an overpair. Massive LOL at checking with $16 behind in an $800 pot, but whatever. Nine or lower please.

Turn: 4h

Check, check. BTN looks like he’s losing interest in the hand so i’m pretty sure he has AK or AQ since he doesn’t look enthusiastic at all. I must be good.

HOLD!

River: Th

Far from the best river in the deck but also far from the worst. I make a nine high flush. UTG takes his time to show and seems to want to see what everyone else has first so I show my nine high flush. MP2 mucks QJo with no heart face up. LOL, donkaments. BTN mucks AKo with no heart. HOLD! UTG triumphantly slams down Qh Jx for an epic slowroll and epic fail given he overcalled a shove with two callers with QJo. So it turns out I was in decent shape there preflop against AK, QJ and QJ. Whatever. I’m in no mood to play after the slowroll so I stand up and leave.

Day 7 - I’ve busted the $1100 6max when AK

Today, I learned that when it comes to live poker, I don’t have a B game. I have an A game and a D- game.

I showed up several hours early for the $120 PokerPro Event. For those of you who don’t know, PokerPro tables are the electronic tables they have at Crown and used to have at Excalibur in Las Vegas. The format is a double shootout with 9 tables and 9 players per table for a field of 81.

We start with 20k stacks and 20 minute levels. This structure is actually better than it looks (although far from fantastic) since we see at least twice as many hands per hour on a PokerPro table when compared to a live table.

The blinds start at 50/100 and i’ve chipped up to 21k when I find myself involved in my first major pot. We’re still 9 handed and villain has ~20k. Villain is CO and is a somewhat competent but not particularly good aggressive player. Similar to a breakeven $3.30 MTTer online maybe and with a similar playstyle.

Folded to me in MP, I raise to 250 with 7h 4h, CO calls, BB calls.

Flop: Qc 7c 4d

BB checks, I bet 600, CO calls, BB folds

Turn: 9d

I bet 1600
CO raises 2400 to 4000
I consider my options. I figure villain’s range is likely to consist of AQ-Q9, 99 and combo draws. QQ is very unlikely since he just called preflop in position and 44, 77 and two pair combos also seem unlikely since I have a four and seven in my hand.

I consider raising, realise he’s not going to call a raise with one pair and i’m just going to get stacked if he has nines so I elect to call and checkcall any safe river (basically any non club)

River: Jh

A fairly safe although not perfectly safe offsuit jack hits, completing one of the potential combo draws and giving QJ a better two pair but missing everything else.

I check, villain presses the 5000 chip button (his bet sizing as he decides on the amount is visible to me on the screen) and then thinks for a bit before deciding to add another 1000 chip and 500 chip. He then elects to bet 6,500. I can’t see him betting KQ for value here but he might have AQ and he’s certainly firing with all of the semi-bluffed draws that didn’t get there.

I start talking to villain and tell him I have two pair and ask him if he wants me to call. He looks freaked out and tells me to do whatever I want to do. I decide to call and just as i’m about to hit the call button on my screen, I time out and my hand is folded. FUCK FUCK WHAT THE FUCK WHEN DID THEY CHANGE THE POKERPRO TIMERS FROM 30 SECONDS TO 15 SECONDS.

To add insult to injury, villain shows AKo for absolute air and i’m down to 15k.

That’s the D- portion of my tournament, from here on out i’m playing my absolute A game, some of the best poker i’ve played in months. Even this hand, my decision making was fine but not paying attention to my surroundings (in this case the clock) cost me dearly.

I go set mining twice and miss, go card dead and fold for a while then find myself involved again with ~14k. By now, the blinds have gone up to 200/400.

Dealt to SwoopAE: Tc 8c

UTG limps, UTG+1 limps, it folds around to me on the button. UTG is the type of player who could easily limp aces so I figure my implied odds are good enough with two passive players in the blinds and limp behind on the button. Yes, I know this is terrible online, but I think it’s okay live in this spot since I have an enormous edge in position postflop. SB completes and BB checks.

Flop: 9h 6c 5c

Well, hello!

SB checks, BB (a bad middle aged guy who is your typical live donk) looks like he wants to bet but then elects to check at the last minute, UTG and UTG+1 check, I bet 1,000 (trying to induce a raise from BB so I can 3bet jam since he raises ‘for information’ a lot and folds to a jam). SB folds, BB considers his options and elects to call, UTG and UTG+1 fold.

Turn: 4c

Cool. BB looks pleased with the card and donks out 1,000. I raise to 4,500 and again, he elects to call. I only have about 7,500 behind and I figure he’s calling my river shove too.

River: 5h

BB immediately checks and looks quite disappointed with the card. I pretend to think for a bit (it probably looks weak to this guy) and then bet 6,000 which I think actually does look weaker than all in to villain since he’s already rambled on about his tournament life on several occasions. He thinks for a few seconds and then folds. I think he had a counterfeited two pair but then he decides to show the Ac and says he had ‘another big card’ with it. Okay then.

Shortly after the hand, I raise to 1000 with As Qs and villain from the hand where I timed out jams his now short stack of about 6k, he’s been reshoving a lot since he got crippled so I quickly call and he tables A6. The board runs out 55627 and sadly, I lose a 70/30 for a decent chunk of my stack.

I start opening a ton of pots at 300/600 since the table has become 7 handed and nitty and I accumulate nicely without showdowns. I’m back to about 16k without a showdown when the same villain from the previous two hands I lost open shoves for about 8k; I find 99 on the button and reshove, everyone else folds and villain shows AJ which I figure is close to the top of his range. He quickly binks an ace on the flop and I lose yet another significant chunk of my stack to the same villain.

I chip up some more then get all in against a different short stack at 500/1000 who only has a couple BB and lose with A9 to 66 when I brick out. This leaves me with 5,500 chips at the start of 700/1400. I open shove five times in two orbits without callers and get a walk, putting me back to 15k without showdown. We’re now 5 handed and i’m the short stack.

I’m under the gun and about to shove any two again when I find a beautiful Kd Kh in the hole. I limp in (lol, donkaments, my limping range is AA/KK but no player at the table is anywhere near competent enough to know this) and the button limps, SB jams ~15k and I call, he has AQ and I hold to move back to ~32k. SB is eliminated since we have exactly the same stack size and we’re 4 handed; stacks are approximately 65k/50k/33k/32k.

I start opening a ton of pots again and get 3bet once but find little resistance otherwise. I’m at about 35k when I find Ad Ks under the gun. The blinds have just hit 1k/2k. I raise to 6k and the other short guy who now has 1bb less than me jams. He’s the second best player at the table. I snap and he has AJ; again, my hand holds and we’re left with me (60k), nitty woman to my left who has been gifted two doubleups (80k) and the guy who I timed out against who also won a 70/30 and a flip against me. Damn it, those are my chips, bitch.

I chip up to 65k over the next couple orbits then guy who has all of my chips elects to open jam 20bb on the button. I wake up with 7h 7c in the BB and a tough decision; he’s been all in a lot, is very aggro when short and I guess his shoving range is roughly 22-99, A2+ K9+ QT+ (he’s been caught shoving any two before and although he’s not very good, he is a somewhat thinking player who understands aggression when short stacked).

This is where i’m in a tough spot. The woman will fold her stack away HU so if I win this hand, I win phase 1 of the tournament. If I call and lose, i’m short with 25k and their stacks are similar at 75-80k.

I decide I have him crushed way more than he has me crushed and I decide I can’t pass on a 55/45 edge against his range in this spot with 1.5bb also dead in the pot. I call and villain tables A8o. Yeah, I knew he was light. Sadly, we’re still flipping. This is it, baby… one time!

Flop: Kc 9s 7d

ZOMG I HAZ SET SHIP IT!~!~!~!~

Turn: Js
River: Th

Wait what? Has a straight? FUCKFUCKFUCKWTF!!!!!

Why won’t this guy just die!

I’m left with 25k against villain (my new nickname for this guy) who has 80k and nit woman who has 75k.

I go card dead but pick up some chips when I find KQ and ship over villain’s 6k button raise, amusingly he folds for only about 15k more. I slowly pushbot my way back to about 29k and then find K9 in the SB. Nitwoman folds and villain goes into the tank before calling with A8. Please, for the love of God, let me get there one time against this guy. King or a nine please.

Flop: 742
Turn: 6
River: Q

Or not. I wish both players luck, mentioning that whoever wins this MUST win the final table for my sanity before heading off to the arcade to play Time Crisis 4. I can truly say I played a flawless tournament with the exception of timing out due to not paying attention in that one hand and I haven’t crushed souls this hard at a poker table in a long, long time (i’m talking March and April when I was upswinging)

After some delicious Indian food, I head back to the hostel and watch Saving Private Ryan and Blade Runner back to back. I’ve somehow never seen either movie and I find both to be highly overrated; Saving Private Ryan was an average war movie and Blade Runner, despite its reputation as one of the best sci-fi movies of all time, was simply beyond awful. I mean 1-1.5 star awful. Maybe I just didn’t get the movie but it seems both boring and pretentious with stupid portions of the plot that made no sense and Harrison Ford’s main character just seemed to be lacking any sort of motivation at all for his actions, which really hurts in a story-based Sci-Fi movie. One of the best Sci-Fi movies of all time? Hardly. It was simply awful.

I’m taking tomorrow off poker and then playing the $1100 6max on Tuesday plus the $240 HA w/ $100 rebuys if I bust early from the 6max. As much as I enjoy HA tournaments, I hope I don’t get to play this one

So today I dropped $375 playing cash games at 2/3. Bought in for $200, got all in preflop with QQ against AK on the second hand. Board comes KKxxx. Bought in again for $175 (all the cash I had on me at the time but still not that short since the max buy-in is $200 at 2/3NL). Ran it up to about $360 through winning a bunch of small pots and getting a third of the stacks in preflop with AQ against KQ against a short stack with about $60 then getting the rest in on the KQx flop and hitting an ace on the turn. After that, I lost a few small pots then got involved in my only truly interesting hand of the session

I’m holding As Qs UTG with effective stacks of ~$300. We’re 8 handed.

I raise to $12 (standard raise at this table and i’m opening a lot so I don’t look super strong), two loose/bad stations call, strong LAG who seems like an online player and has made a sick multi street calldown with one pair against another good player and 3bet light multiple times since i’ve been at the table makes it $35. Why so small? I haven’t flatted any 3bets so I decide he’s trying to isolate one or both of the weak players behind me which means he’s light as in A8+ KJ+ 66+ type of light. This means I can’t fold. I can’t really 4bet either with the stacks since it would commit me and I can’t get it in profitably against villain’s 5bet shove range so I elect to call, which is something I basically never do out of position with AQ. I’m fairly sure villain doesn’t have AK though since the 3bet would be a bit larger since he doesn’t want 3 callers if he has AK. With that in mind, I feel like villain’s most likely holdings are 99-KK, A9-AK, KQ with a very small chance of AA, QQ, AQ (due to my holdings) or having some sort of air or low PP/suited connectors(which is also possible). Villain covers me easily.

Anyhow, the two awful weak players also flat (they’re both under $200 and with ranges as wide as Q7s, KTo, 54s, etc) and we take a flop with just under $150 in the pot.

Flop:

Ad Tc 3s

I check with the intention of jamming over any reasonable cbet from any of the three players. The two weak players check. Villain (he’s either CO or BTN, i can’t remember) bets $85 which is actually quite large for a cbet into a 4 way $150 pot for live poker. I move in as planned, the weak players fold and villain tanks (??) so i’m thinking he has KK and is worried i’m bluffshoving (he’s seen me bluffshove before) or some sort of ace rag type hand. He calls and turns over AT and I brick out to lose my second $700 pot in two days.

I’m actually going to post this hand in NLHE cash strategy to get some input. Am I supposed to fold AQ which has probably 55-57% equity against villain’s 3bet range simply because i’m OOP here? The whole hand seems pretty gross and it feels like checkshoving the flop may be bad since he’s snapping with AK+ (well, apparently not) but may not pay me off with weaker hands; then again if I lead the flop I may simply get three folds if he doesn’t have an ace (or induce a bluffshove from villain) and if I checkcall the flop I give him a free chance at a likely two outs and he isn’t going to pay me anyway when I continue on the turn or river. My shove is significantly less than a full pot raise so I think it’s okay. It seems gross to flat a 3bet OOP though and lose 100bb when I hit, although I guess i’m probably just overanalysing things because if the flop is A93 or AJ3 I end up getting his stack instead of him getting mine.

Anyway

Cash: -$375
Tournaments: $0

This trip is in danger of going into Vegas trip territory from a financial perspective if I don’t cash in the $1100 6max or Main though.

I’ve also decided if I bust everything from here and drop 4k or whatever for the series then i’m done with playing poker professionally for the time being, i’ll be on a close to 20k downswing and my roll will below 20k for the first time in about a year and i’ll have to drop down slightly and regrind for a while as i’m working full time.

Or I can just win the Main Event. Either way.

After staying up until 7am watching Season 3 of Nip/Tuck (which I highly recommend, by the way), I sleep in until late afternoon and make my way over to Crown for a cash session since there are no tournaments on today (it’s 1b of the $550 event i’ve already busted from).

I find myself at a fairly soft table. The first time I get involved is with an effective stack of ~$190 at 2/3NL. Villain is an incompetent player who continues with way too many hands postflop.

Dealt to SwoopAE: 3d 3s

One limper, I make it $10 from MP, four players call.

Flop: 8d Th 3h

Cool.

Checked to me, I bet $25, CO calls, everyone else folds.

Turn: 7h

I feel villain is very light here even though he coldcalled with several players to act behind and since he should have me on air, I check with the intention of checkraising all in since he very rarely has a flush draw and should be betting most of his range if I check. Also, if he bets it should be half of my stack so by checkshoving i’m getting paid by any pair and any draw. Leading is probably also fine here. Anyway…. villain checks behind. Well then. That plan didn’t work.

River: 6h

Oh now why would you do that to me… wait, I did it to myself. I check and villain checks his cards then bets $25. Well, i’m not good here very often but I call anyway since i’m getting over 4-1. Villain tables Ad Qh and I feel really stupid for not betting the turn. To be fair, I expected him to bet hands like that when I checked the turn.

After the hand, villain says he put me on AK which is why he called on the flop. I’m not sure whether he called to chase his 3 outs against AK or to bluff me on the turn, although since he didn’t bluff the turn when I checked, i’m pretty sure he’s just a retard. I probably have bet the turn though, I had my read on villain a little off since I expected him to bet single heart hands on the turn if I checked.

Anyway, I then manage to get my last $140 or so all in three way on the flop with AA against AQ and QT on a Q63 board. Unfortunately, the board runs out 6Q and I get stacked as the villains catch one of their few outs to chop my money.

I rebuy and build my stack up to $400 when I flop a set of eights againt a guy who turns two pair to stack him. I get three streets from a straight draw that becomes a straight on the turn then get two streets with a set of tens a few hours later.

I get involved in another amusing hand when a drunk, loud, young guy who doesn’t seem to understand the game and raises every hand elects to raise to $25 by throwing out a single $25 chip without announcing it. The call stands. He’s been doing this with hands like Q9. I find Ad Kc so I figure i’ll raise to $15 and give him a chance to make a mistake and repop me. Three players call behind me and then villain asks if he can raise and then says he wants to raise to $25. Ship it. He has approximately $230 in front of him, I cover easily. I repop to $165 and villain elects to (??) call with $70 behind.

Flop: Ac 2d 4s

Villain checks and I elect to check behind since I basically have the nuts now and villain is bad enough to fold if I bet here. I want that last $70.

Turn: 9s

Villain checks again, which is unexpected because he’s very aggressive. Anyway, I can’t give him another card so I bet $75 and he folds. LOL, Donkaments. Well, Cashgameaments at least.

I find myself sitting above $700 so i’m up a buyin and a half now. It’s close to 3am and I get involved in one last hand.

Incompetent guy from the previous hand (who has rebought and has ~$190, SB has ~$280, BB has ~$700) limps in, I find Ah Kh and raise to $15, BTN calls, SB calls, BB calls. Again, incompetent guy minreraises to $25. Cool. I decide that none of the players behind me are capable of flatting AA or KK so I simply move my $700 into the middle since villain’s range is like the top half of hands AND he’s calling.

BTN folds.
SB goes into the tank. What? SB eventually announces call. I guess it’s AQ or TT-JJ then?
BB goes into the tank. What the fuck? She’s over 200BB deep! She eventually folds and the incompetent guy announces call.

The board runs out JTT97 and I know i’m pretty screwed but i’ll get a sidepot if SB has AQ. SB shows QQ. What? Okay then. Incompetent guy shows KTo to more than triple up to over $600 as SB rakes in the $150 or so in the sidepot.

[x] Lost a flip for 3BI

I’m down to $430 and I play around to my button, set mining unsuccessfully once and hitting middle pair once and firing then checkfolding a bad turn. I cash out $401, for a profit of $1 and wander over to hand out with Michelle who has turned up at Crown at 3am after a night of drinking and a guy whose name I can’t recall. I get KFC and then wander back to the hostel to watch some TV.

By the numbers

Tournaments: $0
Cash Games: +$1

Ship it, I made a dollar. That’s like 14c/hr. Ballin!

Yeah, so the title sums up my day.

I spend most of the afternoon mucking around online without actually playing any poker then head into Crown at around 6pm for dinner. At 7:10, I make my way over to Table 25 and find myself seated at a particularly weak table of randoms. $550 250k GTD, Day 1a has ~230 runners. There are two day ones and a repechage. We’re starting with 10k at 25/50 with 30 minute levels on Day 1 and 40 minute levels on Day 2.

I find my way up to 11k early after calling a tight player’s raise with JJ and getting two streets on a 863KK board, villain shows A6 at showdown when I checkcall the river. Not sure whether she was betting for value or bluffing and she probably wasn’t sure either. Come to think of it, maybe she wasn’t as tight a player as I thought.

I find a bunch of pocket pairs and miss a bunch of flops, with 99, 88, 88 and 66 all failing to connect. With the nines, I fire into three players on a 653 flop and find one caller. The turn is a 4 and on a rainbow board, I can’t see any hand i’m beating anymore except 88 so I check/fold the turn. I figure he has a set more than anything since one of the other players says he folded 77 but I don’t beat anything anyway so it doesn’t really matter.

I also get involved in a few minor pots and have my cbets raised or get horrible flops such as KQ5 when i’m holding TT and I simply give up my hand. By halfway through the 75/150 level, i’ve leaked down to about 7,500 and although I still have plenty of chips, the frustration is setting in.

Sam Youssef, a multimillionaire whale who plays high stakes has been moved to the table and he’s sitting two to my right. He’s a massive aggrodonk preflop and a massive station postflop. Logically, this means that i’m going to have a brain implosion and fire three barrels into him with air sooner or later and it turns out to be sooner rather than later. I’m so retarded sometimes. My bustout hand pains me to type because my line is embarrasingly retarded both preflop and on all three streets.

Sam raises to 400 on the button (his range is ATC here) and the SB calls, I know i’m supposed to fold but I elect to throw out another 250 with 7d5s for some unknown reason. I never defend in spots like this but I feel like I can take the pot with a flop bet on a lot of boards. Anyhow, there’s mistake number one.

Flop: Th3d2c

That’s actually a pretty good board for me to fire once at and then give up, I guess. Live players fold to donkbets out of the blinds more than they should for the record.

SB checks
I miscalculate the level we’re on for some reason, thinking it’s 50/100 instead of 75/150 despite having been the big blind in this hand and elect to lead 375 (what I thought was half pot but what turns out to be significantly less obviously)
Sam calls. When he calls, this means he has total air and from his demeanour, I can tell he has a low PP under the tens at best and probably air. Because of this, I decide that 2barreling looks pretty strong and that i’m going to 2barrel most turns and he’ll give up if he hasn’t hit.
SB calls, which surprises me, but he doesn’t look particularly invested in the hand so I figure he has something retarded like a gutshot.

Turn: Ac

The SB checks and looks like he’s given up, so I elect to 2barrel as planned. I look at the stack sizes and decide that since there are a lot of rivers that I can fire and Sam has a weak ace at best, i’m going to lead small again and fire the river as well if he calls. Which of course is completely retarded against a station who I have played with many times before. I lead 800 with the intention of firing the river if Sam calls and giving up if he raises or the SB comes along.

Sam says something like ‘really?’ which I take as a sign he has a low PP or some marginal hand. He calls and the SB folds. There is now about 4,000 in the pot and I have about 5,700 behind.

River: 3c

Pretty much the perfect scare card. The runner runner flush gets there, middle pair on the flop gets there, Sam may suck but he knows i’m not firing a ten a third time so firing again here looks super strong, like 75% nuts (better than top pair) 25% air strong. The only missed draw I could have is something like 54 which is a miniscule portion of my range and absolutely everything else got there except for total air (which, unfortunately, is exactly what I have)

My head is telling me ‘he’s a station, give up’ but my gut says he’s weak and he can’t call a large river bet.

This is where it gets interesting. The dealer messes up my change (I threw out a white 1k chip on the turn for my 800 bet) and tries to push me back 1200, just as i’m reaching forward with my 5,500 stack of large denomination chips in my hand. I’m about to announce all-in, but then I think for some reason that i’m actually 7k deep instead of 5.7k, the dealer stops me to take back the 1,000 chip as I reach for it and in doing so, I drop the 5,500 stack in my other hand on the felt. Oops, I just bet 5,500 of my 5,700 stack with total air, without announcing all in, in the clumsiest manner in history. Live players view all in bets as stronger than all but one chip type bets for some reason so this actually matters.

Anyway, Sam asks how much I bet, I state 5,500 (with 200 behind) and he asks me if I have a set (he means a three but whatever, he said set). I don’t say anything and he says something along the lines of ‘you have a set but I have to pay you off’ and calls, showing As Ks which unfortunately is right at the top of his range. I think he’s calling me with most aces, although he probably shouldn’t be since my range is something like 70% nuts 30% air. maybe i’m overestimating how often I have a runner runner flush, set or 3x here. I shouldn’t have 3x much unless it’s threes full since I led the turn. He looks quite surprised to have won the hand, says something like ‘you know better than to try and bluff me’ (which I do since he’s a station) and I curse myself for being a retard with fancy play syndrome.

I’m almost all in blind from the SB so I throw in my last chip since 75 of my 200 is in on the SB and I bust when two players somehow end up all in on the flop and my 94o is drawing dead. I’m completely disgusted with my play. I even had a soft table. That was just inexcusably bad and a blatant waste of $550 (or, well, the $400 or so in equity that my stack was worth before the hand)

I can’t recall butchering a hand this badly with total air for 50BB against a station in a long, long time.

I’m more upset busting in this spot than I have been at any time over the past few months, including all of my flip for the chiplead on the bubble spots in Vegas. A three barrel all in bluff there is not just bad, it’s something a retarded, spewy live donk muppet would do. I’m ashamed of how badly I played today. It’s just awful.

Anyway, I head up to the cinema and watch GI Joe to unwind, it’s a typical fun action movie with a nonsense plot and random bad dialogue but it’s entertaining enough to see once. It’s still only about 11pm but I can’t bring myself to play any cash since i’ll just spew off money with that hand still on my mind so I head back to the hostel to basically do nothing for the rest of the night, write up my trip report/confession that I suck and maybe watch some TV.

Tomorrow i’ll play some cash and try to undo the damage I did to my roll with my massive failure today. The goal is to run up my $1100 buyin for the 6max event playing cash over the weekend when the Crown donks come out to drink, play and spew off money.

I really need to write a note on my hand when I play live tournaments that says ‘don’t be creative, don’t bluff, be a TAG/nit until the antes kick in then steamroll them by pushbotting when we’re down to 15bb average stacks’.

Ugh, I suck at poker. Today was disgraceful, but tomorrow is a new day and… well… nevermind, i’m a luckbox, i’m due and i’ll just win the Main Event instead.

Day 2: $340 Terminator NLHE w/$100 Bounties

I find myself at Table 20, Seat 7 with 5,000 brand new shiny chips in front of me with half hour levels… only one problem… we’re 11 handed. Yeah, fuck you too Crown.

The blinds start at 25/50 and I find myself involved on the very first hand in the SB with effective stacks of 5k

Dealt to SwoopAE: As Qd

Folded to CO
CO calls 50
BTN raises 175 to 225
I call
BB folds
CO folds

Flop: Ks Js 8c

I’m pretty much done with this hand if he fires a reasonable bet since it’s all over his range and i’m behind a low PP anyway so I check.

Villain bets 200. That’s odd. I decide he must have a low PP or a monster and elect to call and lead most turns then give up if I get any further action unless I hit something.

Turn: Ah

Well, that changes things. Leading this card makes no sense so I check.

Villain bets 500. I don’t really like this but I have to call down now since the only hands that should be beating me here are AK, AJ and sets. I elect to call and checkcall most rivers.

River: 9d

The river changes nothing really, so I check with the intention of going with my read since I essentially only beat a bluff or a very badly played AT on this board. Villain bets 1,000. I’m thinking about folding but villain’s mannerisms seem fairly weak so I make an ‘I don’t beat anything other than a bluff but villain could be a spewy retard because it’s live poker’ call.

Villain shows 73 offsuit and I take down a nice pot with my bluffcatcher. Who am I kidding, i’m just a station.

Anyway, i’ve got off to a nice start and i’m up to nearly 7k.

I stay mostly uninvolved for a while, win and lose some small pots raising preflop and then either cbetting or giving up with mixed results and then find myself in another hand at 100/200 with a stack of ~7500. I cover most players at the table, BTN has ~2200 and SB has ~1400.

I find 2d 2h UTG+1 and those of you who have played with me know this is my ‘lucky hand’. I consider mucking since the stack sizes are awkward but we’re 9 handed at the moment so whatever, I raise. I make it 500.

BTN elects to call, leaving ~1700 behind. BTN is a spewy live donk who limpcalls and flats large raises out of position only to checkfold the flop and stuff like that. He’s awful.

In any case, SB elects to go all in for 1400, only 900 on top of my raise. With a bounty worth a third of a buyin on the line and potentially two if BTN calls with the largest stack being 11bb, I snap reshove and BTN tank-folds. LOL, donkaments at BTN flatcalling a quarter of his stack and then folding preflop. Anyway…

Villain turns over Qc Qs and I remain in my seat, calmly telling villain that I have the stone cold nuts and he’s going to the rail. After all, I have my lucky hand and i’m going to run good today. Villain starts yelling ‘HOLD, ONE TIME!’ and stuff like live donks yell when they’re all in.

Flop: Jc 6c 5h

Um, two please?

Turn: 3c

I haz teh gutshot!

Unfortunately, villain has picked up a flush draw so I only have four outs.

I calmly repeat that I have the stone cold and ask the dealer for a two or a four.

River: 4s

Ship it! I make a straight and villain starts cursing at either me or the dealer, it’s hard to tell. He tells his friend on the rail that i’m a ‘fucking donk luckbox’ and I tend to agree. It’s fun being a luckbox though.

I find myself with about 9.5k and then go completely card dead, stealing once per orbit for the next three levels. I raise preflop with Ah 7h at 200/400, get one caller, flop a nut flush draw and open shove. Villain quickly mucks. I play position and win one hand per orbit without seeing a hand better than KcTc (which I folded) for about two hours (only about 6-7 orbits/4levels for live poker) and find myself sitting with 9,000 at the start of 500/1k with the average at 18k. I jam some random hands on the SB two orbits in a row then on the button on the next orbit. I also pick up a pot when SB (a nitty woman named Kim who is apparently good but seems to be a massive nit) limps and I jam some random two cards like Q6 and she folds. I haven’t seen a pocket pair other than 22 yet and my next best hand after the AQ on the first hand was ATo or some rubbish. Still, i’m staying afloat because my table sucks. With no antes though, accumulating is hard so i’m just staying afloat.

Finally, on the last hand of 500/1k, I find Qd Qh in MP. A weak player limps UTG+1 and I raise to 5,000 with a ~10k stack because it’s live poker and he’s going to view that as weak because he’s retarded and i’ve been going all in a lot. It folds around to villain who elects to shove and I quickly call. Villain has Ac 7c and i’m looking good to double up with ~22k in the pot.

Flop: Kc Jc 9h

Well, I never said it was going to be easy.

Turn: 9d

Hold, please.

River: 4h

I somehow hold and climb to 22k, which is close to the average. We’re down to a little under a quarter of the field.

At 600/1200, I find a nice spot to jam over a limper with AJ, he tank-folds and then says he had AQ.

My response to that can be best described by watching Durrrr’s facial expression on the HSP episode when Eastgate just calls Durrrr when Eastgate has A6 and Durrrr has 62 on the 66xxx board. Limp-fold to the 15bb stack is optimal, sir.

I continue stealing blinds on the BTN and CO every orbit and jam every SB into the nitty BB who only has ~12k, he continues to fold.

I eventually find AQ again and jam over a raiser who folds and suddenly I have 37k despite only having gone to showdown three times during the tournament, twice of which was during the first level.

At 800/1600, my friend James raises to 4500 with ~25k on the CO, I say ’sorry James’ and snap-shove my ~35k with 99 on the SB, BB immediately overcalls for about 17k, much to my disgust. James folds Ah Jh face up and I pray to be up against AK. Sadly, BB has KK and i’m going to need to bink a nine. Suckout again perhaps?

Flop: Q87
Turn: 2
River: 6

I brick out and find myself with ~18k as the blinds go up to 1k/2k. At this point we’re down to about 40 players, with 251 runners and 20 places paid.

I open shove A8o on the button, AQ UTG+1 and 33 UTG over the next orbit without callers to move back to about 27k. Some idiot tank-folds and claims he has AK to my UTG shove. LOL, Donkaments. ‘But I didn’t have a made hand’, he protests, when the table laughs at his perceived nittiness. He didn’t show the hand though so who knows. I fold my blinds and then wake up with Jc Js on the cutoff with about 35 players left and ~24k. Cool. UTG raises to 6,000. Not cool. Fortunately, UTG is a young Asian Gambler Kid™ who is beyond retarded at poker. Example: At 500/1k, he opens 4.5x in MP with AsTs, gets shoved on for 13x, the shove gets overcalled by a guy with 28x, he flats the overcaller, checks the 8×7s6s flop, overcaller jams, he tank calls getting over 5-1 with 13 clean outs after putting half of the effective stacks in preflop, then gets there. Seriously, he flatted a shove and overcaller pre for 60% of the stacks then considered folding once he hit as hard as he could realistically expect to hit. Anyway, for this reason, I know i’m way, way good against his UTG range and I also know he isn’t folding to a 12BB shove after i’ve open shoved 3 of the past 10 hands. I move in, he calls and tables Qh Qd. Of course the idiot has a hand. Anyway, a jack would be nice. Maybe two of them.

Flop: Tc 8c 6d

I pick up some runner-runner draws. It’s a start. How about the nine of clubs on the turn?

Turn: 2s

Well that didn’t help. Jack, please. I’m going to win this tournament. I feel it.

The river… is a king. The paint got me all excited. Oh well.

I head off to the rail with my single bounty chip for a loss of $240 and yet ANOTHER top 20% of the field without cashing finish. I’m getting a lot of those.

I watch James for a while but he loses a big flip with about 30 left and sadly, the remaining members of Team Obnoxious Jerks both fail to cash in the event.

Tomorrow i’m thinking about playing Day 1a of the $550 250k GTD event.

A rundown of today, by the numbers

Tournaments: -$240 (-$340 Buy-in, +$100 cash for bounty)
Cash: $0

Net: -$240

As if I would have two winning days in a row.

I’m feeling good about tomorrow though. I won 1/3 key races today, went to showdown 6 times all tournament (4 AIPF, won 2/4, the AQ hand and a checked down bvb pot which I won) and still accumulated well, ran up a stack twice and just lost the key pots.

I wouldn’t change how I played any hand today, at all, so i’m very happy with my play but disappointed with the result, obviously.

Maybe tomorrow i’ll start my journey towards that huge score. It should be about 60k for the win in tomorrow’s event. That would be nice.

Live poker. Sigh. Gotta win those races… um, I mean 20/80s… whatever.